A study by Mumbai-based broking firm Tradonomy shows Nifty’s fall for three consecutive months in the past decade was followed by a rally in the subsequent month. Out of the nine times when the Nifty has fallen for three straight months since 2011, the index has bounced back in the fourth month on each occasion, it said.
Indicators are pointing to a recovery in the Nifty in March, said Dharan Shah, founder of Tradonomy. “Nifty is forming three black crows (three consecutive negative months) on a monthly time frame,” said Shah. “We have seen in the last 10 years this is followed by a rebound in the next month.” The ‘three black crow‘ pattern refers to a bearish technical pattern though this indicator is interpreted differently by analysts.
Shah expects the Nifty to gain 4.5-7.5% in March.
The Nifty closed at 17,303.95 on Tuesday, down 88.75 points or 0.5% below the previous close, extending its losing run to the eighth straight day. The index has shed 4% in the previous eight trading sessions.
Traders are not ruling out a rebound in the market in the near term but are not willing to stick their necks out to bet on a sustained uptrend.
“Three black crows is an established trend reversal indicator but at this juncture, I would not base my bets on trend and momentum strategies,” said Piyush Chaudhry, founder of Mumbai-based Wave Analytics. “We are still in a sideways corrective market.”From December 1, 2022, to February 28, 2023, the Nifty has declined 8.3%.
“The market could bounce back because it is at extreme oversold levels,” said Chirag Kabani, a Mumbai-based professional trader and technical analyst. “But I will not bet that it will stay positive for the whole of March because seasonally the month tends to be tricky.” Since 2012, the Nifty has gained seven times and ended lower on five occasions. The index has risen 0.7% on average in this period. “Several investors and traders will be planning their tax outgo before the financial year end and that could result in volatility,” said Kabani.